Embalo Seeks Second Term Amid Guinea-Bissau’s Political Crisis

Guinea-Bissau’s President Umaro Sissoco Embalo has announced his candidacy for a second term in the upcoming November election, despite ongoing tensions with an opposition that refuses to recognize his presidency. His declaration comes amid a deepening political crisis in the country, which has a history of instability.

A delegation from the West African regional bloc ECOWAS, sent to mediate the crisis, left Guinea-Bissau on Monday after claiming they faced threats of expulsion from Embalo. The opposition, which dominates parliament, has challenged Embalo’s legitimacy, arguing that his presidential term has already expired.

Embalo officially announced his re-election bid upon returning to Bissau from a diplomatic tour of Russia, Azerbaijan, and Hungary. “I will be a candidate for my own succession,” he told reporters at the airport.

According to Guinea-Bissau’s constitution, a president can serve two five-year terms. While Embalo’s eligibility for a second term appears straightforward, the opposition disputes the timeline of his first term. He won the presidential election on November 24, 2019, and was sworn in on February 27, 2020. However, the opposition contested the results, and the Supreme Court did not validate his victory until September 4 of that year. The opposition claims his term should have ended on February 27, 2025, while the Supreme Court has ruled that it extends until September 4.

Embalo has set the next election for November 30 and insists he will remain in office until then. However, opposition leaders reject his authority and are planning mass protests and strikes. They had initially paused their actions, awaiting the outcome of the ECOWAS mediation effort, which has now ended without resolution.

Guinea-Bissau has a long history of coups and political turmoil since gaining independence from Portugal more than five decades ago. Embalo claims to have survived two coup attempts in the past three years. The most recent incident, in December 2023, involved an armed confrontation between the national guard and the presidential guard. Following the unrest, Embalo dissolved the opposition-led parliament, accusing it of failing to take action.

Last week, Embalo met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss economic and security ties. Russia has been expanding its influence in Africa, increasingly becoming the preferred security partner for many governments, replacing traditional Western allies such as France and the United States.

As Guinea-Bissau heads toward another election, the country faces an uncertain political future. Embalo’s insistence on remaining in power and the opposition’s growing resistance raise concerns about further instability. With tensions escalating, the coming months could be crucial in determining the nation’s democratic trajectory.